Crisis negotiation, deadlines and complexity

The field of crisis negotiation has developed rapidly since the poorly managed Munich Olympics hostage crisis in 1972. A general trend has been towards seeking better understanding of human behaviour. This understanding often allows negotiators to resolve crisis events in ways that carry much lower risk than the traditional approach of forceful intervention.

One of the key techniques involves intentional and informed management of time to facilitate a weakening of perpetrators’ resolve. What seemed like a good idea on day one of a siege may not seem equally appealing after days or weeks of uneventful inactivity and lack of progress. With the passing of time, the initial heightened emotions and inflated expectations of success de-escalate and tend to get replaced with fatigue, exhaustion, boredom, hunger and despair.

It is then interesting to read the article on BBC today where Ukraine’s interior minister proposed to resolve the present hostage crisis by establishing a 48h deadline for resolving the crisis with “either talk or force”. This strategy would seem at odds with recent thinking in crisis negotiation, and actually opens up a wide range of undesirable risks, including:

  • While stalling for time serves to defuse emotions and increase rationality, the introduction of deadlines instead increases stress and emotions, which in turn increases the risk of rushed, impulsive and unpredictable decisions.
  • Imposing a deadline is an overt display of power, and the hope is to motivate submission. But more often than not the use of power instead motivates resentment, resistance, revenge, escalation and even mutual destruction. Power is often an element in crisis negotiations, but due to the negative by-products it creates, power is often introduced gradually by negotiators and primarily for the purpose of motivating a continuation of negotiations. In contrast an ultimatum introduces maximum power in one hit, and is more likely to result in a fight or flight response.
  • Note that in this case Ukraine has effectively imposed the deadline on itself – not just on the activists. And Ukraine has in the process reduced the number of available options for resolution by locking itself into one course of action. This is a legitimate strategy from a game theory perspective. But from a negotiation perspective there is now a risk that the pro-Russian activists will test the deadline. If the deadline passes, and Ukraine doesn’t use force, then the Ukraine’s power of any similar threats in the future, even in unrelated negotiations, will be severely reduced. Thus by imposing the ultimatum Ukraine has significantly increased the likelihood of a forceful resolution to the crisis. And use of force may be particularly undesirable given the current political context in Ukraine.

Of course, we have to be careful to not assume that we know Ukraine’s motivation behind the strategy. If the goal is to resolve the situation with minimum risk of losing lives then we might question the strategy as above. But if the goal different, e.g. to end the siege swiftly for political reasons in order to better manage local and international constituents, then there is of course more rationale for the strategy.

International crises are very complex. Here we focused on one small piece, and that is the impact of deadlines and ultimatums on the likelihood of peaceful resolutions with barricaded perpetrators.

Let’s see how it pans out!

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Eyes OFF the prize

“What? Now you’re just confusing us. First you say eyes on the prize, now eyes OFF the prize. Which one is it?!” 

First of all, I wish to apologize for the confusion. It was completely intentional 🙂

Here is what is going on. In negotiation there are very few insights that are always right. Rather, as we discuss in the book, we need a situational approach that acknowledges that the situation and context determines which negotiation insights will be most relevant at any particular point in your current negotiation.

So the previous blog entry highlighted how keeping a relentless focus on the prize can help parties move negotiations along despite feelings of regret, resentment, hurt, blame or desire for revenge.

But sometimes the other party’s relentless focus on their prize is the problem. Specifically when their prize (or “desired outcome”) is for you to lose the negotiation.

Consider the playful tug of war over a tennis ball with your dog. The more force you put into getting your prize, the more force your dog will put in. Does your dog want the tennis ball? Yes. But perhaps your dog specifically wants the tennis ball because you want it, or because it enjoys the game. It is simple, primitive and innate competitive behaviour. So what happens when you act uninterested and walk away? That’s right, sometimes your dog will walk up to you and leave the ball at your feet! The ball is now yours… until you want it… and now the competition resumes!

And what happens if you in the middle of the tug of war let go of the ball and instead pet your dog and rub it behind the ears and on the tummy. Your dog’s internal dialogue instantly changes from “Must have ball!” to “What ball?” Its eyes are off the prize, and again the ball is yours – this time without the dog knowing (or caring about) what happened.

So how is this relevant for negotiation? Well, in circumstances when the other party is ultra-competitive and specifically uses the success criteria that you have to lose, we may actually wish to avoid negotiating head-on. We specifically do not want their eyes on the prize.

Imagine going to a gym and trying to negotiate to get 2-3 weeks free trial training instead of the regular 1-3 day pass. Any attempt to increase the number of free days is very likely to be met with resistance.

But what if you change the interaction? What if you e.g. share that you are prepared to join, but later share your apprehension because you fear that you might discover that you not like the gym. Chances are that the sales person, now focusing on closing a sale (not the free trial), will try to get you to sign by offering a sweetener such as: “Ok, would you sign now if we offer a guarantee that if you don’t like the gym after 2-3 weeks you get your money back”.

Isn’t that funny? Did you get what you want? Yes. Can you train for free for 2-3 weeks? Yes. Do you have to commit to more? No. Does the sales person think he or she lost the negotiation about the free trial? No. So were you met with resistance? No. Instead the salesperson gave you exactly what you wanted. And you didn’t even ask for it!

Note that the lesson in this blog post is not really about negotiating gym memberships. It is about dealing with ultra-competitive negotiators by having them not realize that they are in a competition. So… where else can you use this insight…?